Compounding, cascading, and critical risks to U.S. infrastructure and security

a systems-focused compound-hazard workshop

August 4-6, 2025 — Portland, OR

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Workshop concept

The workshop centered on in-depth discussions exploring low-likelihood, high-impact compound hazards affecting the United States. In considering multiple physical phenomena, critical systems, decision types, and knock-on effects, the workshop identified and analyzed risks to society and the economy that are compounding, cascading, and potentially unprecedented. Its ultimate aim was for researcher and practitioner attendees to jointly develop workflows, guide research, and inform efficient adaptation and governance plans across timescales — improving national preparedness and resilience.

Storyline outcomes

Program

Day 1: Mon, Aug 4

  • 8:00-8:30: Breakfast
  • 8:30-8:45: Welcome and introductory remarks
  • 8:45-9:15: Keynote — A research perspective on compound hazards & risks                     Amir AghaKouchak (UC Irvine)
  • 9:15-10:00: Panel — Practical research needs                                                 Abatzoglou, Ajibade, Drakes, Kirk-Davidoff
  • 10:00-10:30: Break
  • 10:30-11:00: “Speed dating” casual discussions (5-min rotations)
  • 11:00-11:30: Storyline-guidance panel
  • 11:30-12:30: Storyline co-development in small groups, focused on hazard description and gap identification
  • 12:30-1:30: Lunch (provided)
  • 1:30-3:00: Talks — Recent high-profile compound hazards                                                 Foard, Leung, Rivera, Santana
  • 3:00-3:30: Break
  • 3:30-4:30: Storyline co-development in small groups [continued]
  • 4:30-5:00: Storyline progress reports and feedback
  • Evening: Informal social event

Day 2: Tues, Aug 5

  • 8:00-8:30: Breakfast
  • 8:30-9:15: Panel — Exposed populations                                                       Kerman, Kruczkiewicz, Mendenhall, Mukerji
  • 9:15-9:45: Keynote — Storylines and risk planning on the Gulf Coast         Alessandra Jerolleman (Loyola U New Orleans)
  • 9:45-10:15: Break
  • 10:15-11:00: Panel — Making decisions at the juncture of data and experience         Dello, Mote, Pinheiro Privette, Stovall
  • 11:00-12:30: Storyline co-development in small groups, focused on detailed narrative elaboration
  • 12:30-1:30: Lunch (provided)
  • 1:30-3:00: Talks — Actors and actions for robust risk management                            Enriquez, Fleishman, Garcia, Kyprioti
  • 3:00-3:30: Break
  • 3:30-4:30: Storyline co-development in small groups [continued]
  • 4:30-5:00: Storyline progress reports and feedback

Day 3: Wed, Aug 6

  • 8:00-8:30: Breakfast
  • 8:30-9:00: Keynote — Risk resilience mediated by the private sector                                 Greg Characklis (UNC)
  • 9:00-9:45: Panel — Innovations in addressing compound risks                                           Hansen, Hereid, Hu, Swain
  • 9:45-10:15: Break
  • 10:15-11:45: Storyline co-development in small groups, focused on vision and recommendations
  • 11:45-12:45: Presentation of final storylines; synthesis comments
  • 12:45-1:45: Lunch (provided) and intradisciplinary small-group reflection
  • 1:45-2:30: Intradisciplinary small-group reflection [continued] and report/workflow notes
  • 2:30-2:45: Final remarks and adjournment

Speakers: Jared Enriquez (U Albany), Erica Fleishman (Oregon State), Colin Foard (Pew Charitable Trusts), Margaret Garcia (Arizona State U), Katerina Kyprioti (U Oklahoma), Ruby Leung (PNNL), Fernando Rivera (UCF), Francisca Santana (U Washington)
Panelists: John Abatzoglou (UC Merced), Jola Ajibade (Emory U), Kathie Dello (NC State), Oronde Drakes (USGS), Lara Hansen (EcoAdapt), Kelly Hereid (Liberty Mutual), Yingjie Hu (U Buffalo), Scott Kerman (Blanchet House), Daniel Kirk-Davidoff (Electric Power Research Institute), Andrew Kruczkiewicz (Columbia U), Andy Mendenhall (Central City Concern), Philip Mote (Oregon State U), Ria Mukerji (Washington State U), Ana Pinheiro Privette (U Illinois),Wendy Stovall (USGS), Daniel Swain (UC ANR)

Talk & panel summaries

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

Colin Raymond (UCLA) & Deepti Singh (Washington State U.)

Amir AghaKouchak (UCI), Oronde Drakes (USGS), Jennifer Helgeson (NIST), Kelly Hereid (Liberty Mutual), Miyuki Hino (UNC), Paul Loikith (Portland State U.), Francisco Peña (FIU), Alex Ruane (Columbia U.), Antonia Sebastian (UNC)

Sponsor